Business & Finance

Guest Column

Mortgage Matters


Market Update

Retail Sales and CPI reports for January just released.  Both stocks and bonds selling off.

Consumer inflation has been benign for most of 2017.  In some months consumer inflation even dropped on month over month basis.  This morning CPI report shows a strong reversal to last year’s trend.

Sign Up for E-News

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January rose 0.5% month over month, exceeding economists’ forecasts of only a 0.3% rise.  Year over year, CPI rose at a 2.1% annual pace.   

The Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, rose 0.3% month over month and 1.8% year over year.  Both exceeding economists’ forecasts.

Transportation, medical care, clothing, monthly rents, and energy prices all saw a large increase in month over month pricing which contributed to the stronger than expected report.   

Today’s report confirms that inflation has some staying power and could rise in the months ahead.   Though this report is not the most watched inflation metric by the Federal Reserve, that would be the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), it does hold significant weight and factors into their interest rate decisions.

Retail Sales for January showed disappointing results.  January Retail Sales actually fell -0.3% month over month mainly due to weaker auto sales. 

Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and is a key driver of inflation and growth.  This report tends to be extremely volatile on month to month basis.  Many economists are forecasting higher retail sales in the months to come as the tax reform bill puts more money in worker pay checks.

The 10 Year Note is currently yielding 2.87%.  Before this morning’s data was released it traded as low as 2.82% but quickly reversed course after the CPI report.

The Fed was hoping for higher inflation and they are starting to see it.   Their rate path trajectory of 3 to 4 hikes this year is still very much intact after this morning’s report. 

Tomorrow the Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures inflation at the producer level, and Industrial Production, which gauges the health of the manufacturing sector are released.  Both reports have the ability to move markets.

Just a reminder, Financial Markets are closed Monday, February 19th in observance of President’s Day.   Family First Funding Lock Desk and offices will also be closed.

Thomas R. Sirico

Executive Business Director

Main: (732) 945-1005 x700
Cell: (917) 923-1472
NMLS 38348





The opinions expressed herein are the writer's alone, and do not reflect the opinions of or anyone who works for is not responsible for the accuracy of any of the information supplied by the writer. Click here to submit a Guest Column.

TAP Into Another Town's News:

Sign Up for E-News

Holmdel & Colts Neck

The Center for Sleep Medicine at Bayshore Medical Center Again Receives Accreditation by the American Academy of Sleep Medicine

April 19, 2018

The Center for Sleep Medicine at Hackensack Meridian Health Bayshore Medical Center has received accreditation for the second time from the American Academy of Sleep Medicine (AASM), whose mission is to improve sleep health and promote high-quality, patient-centered care through advocacy, education, strategic research, and practice standards.

We are very proud of the Center for Sleep Medicine ...

Bayshore Medical Center Names Frank Citara as Chief Operating Officer

April 20, 2018

Holmdel, NJ – April 20, 2018 – Hackensack Meridian Health Bayshore Medical Center in Holmdel, NJ, is proud to name Frank Citara, MBA, as chief operating officer. In his new role, Citara will be responsible for overseeing all campus operations, as well as programming, community relations and the medical center’s finances. Citara joined Bayshore Medical Center in 2015 as senior ...

Tip Your Hat To Spring! To benefit Team Velvet

FLEMINGTON, N.J. — Come meet the therapy horses at Team Velvet, a 501-(c)-3 organization that provides pediatric non-mounted horse therapy for children with adjustment and trauma. “Tip Your Hat To Spring” on Sunday, May 6 from 1 p.m. to 4:30 p.m. will benefit the program.

A fun afternoon is planned with activities for children such as making a hat for Mother's Day, ...

Riverview Medical Center Now Offers DaTscan™ to Help Physicians Diagnose Parkinson’s Disease and Other Parkinsonian Type Syndromes

Red Bank, NJ – April 16, 2018 – Hackensack Meridian Health Riverview Medical Center is pleased to introduce DaTscan™, a tool to help physicians diagnose patients exhibiting the symptoms of Parkinson’s disease and other Parksinsonian syndromes, particularly those that cause tremors. The test is another approach for physicians to accurately identify a disease that can be ...

Holmdel Community Day and HYAA Parade Today, Saturday April 21, at Cross Farm Park

April 21, 2018

HOLMDEL, N.J. - Visit Holmdel Community Day today, April 21st. Gather with friends and neighbors to watch a parade and enjoy beautiful Cross Farm Park! Check out the great events planned below:

10:30am HYAA OPENING DAY PARADE (down Longbridge Road)
10:45am HYAA Opening Day Ceremonies
11:00am Community Day Opens!
Inflatables (FREE)
Food Vendors
Non-Profit and business ...


- Apr 4, 2018
Sally F. Miller, age 85, died on the morning of Wednesday, April 4, in Rye, New York. Born in ...
Read more
Dec 21, 1958 - Mar 26, 2018
Matthew C. Reed, 59, of Marlboro passed away on Monday March 26, at his home. Matthew was born ...
Read more