HOLMDEL, NJ – As expected, the Friday storm passed far to our south, and as that occurred, the big chill arrived to spend part of the weekend with us.  We will continue to see the coldest temps in two years for the next day or two.  This extreme cold is actually helping to feed into the scenario that will likely result in what has the potential to be the biggest snowstorm seen in two years.

The third storm in the conveyor belt of weather previously spoken about originated over the past couple of days in the northwest, and now making its way through the Midwest and then the Ohio valley.  From there the storm drifts towards the southeast, where it will convert into the type of classic coastal storm scenario that is the traditionally big storm pattern for much of the state and into the New York City area.

The cold temperatures we have experienced will create the ideal conditions for a mostly (if not entirely) all-snow event for virtually all of New Jersey.  It seems to no longer be a question of if it will snow, but rather just how much snow we can expect.  Except for extreme southeast NJ, mainly right along the coast near Atlantic City to Cape May, this will be an all-snow event.  The combination of cold air both aloft and at the surface, coupled with the storm’s position, pulling moisture into it from the now cold ocean water, is pretty close to a perfect scenario for a major snowstorm.  The only question will be (as it usually has been with coastal storms) just how far on or offshore the storm will set up.  This will be known over the next two days.  Unlike the storms that spread west to east, this will be a storm that can wreak havoc more towards the coast.  If the models hold to their current path, the areas nearest I-95, both south towards Philadelphia (Trenton, etc.), and most of central New Jersey seem like the bulls-eye territory this time.  Whereas Northwest NJ will likely see slightly less. 

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As far as accumulations, it is early, so there is quite a bit of uncertainty in these numbers.  But conservatively, south and central NJ will likely see 6-10 inches, with areas north of I-78 seeing 4-8 inches.  Northwest NJ looks like 3-5 inches.  Again, these are early estimates.  Adjustments to this number are more likely to trend higher, rather than lower. Timing will be late Sunday night to mid-morning on Tuesday.

Keep watching your local TAPinto sites for updates throughout the weekend, as well as traffic and closings on Sunday and Monday.