My Mostly Foolproof and Almost Guaranteed Oscar Prediction

5b2ff3d152a44275f263_cody_dericks.jpg
5b2ff3d152a44275f263_cody_dericks.jpg

This year’s awards season has been uncharacteristically unpredictable.  Usually with just a little over a week to go before the big night, the biggest categories are already locked down, but this year has seen many last minute surprise victories.  This year’s show should yield at least a few unexpected winners, something that Oscar enthusiasts are always asking for.  But if you want to impress your friends, here are my best predictions for the major categories (in addition to my personal picks for the winners):

Best Picture

The nominees:

Sign Up for E-News

  • American Sniper
  • Birdman
  • Boyhood
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • The Imitation Game
  • Selma
  • The Theory of Everything
  • Whiplash

This category seemed all sewn up until just a few weeks ago.  Boyhood, Richard Linklater’s exquisite chronicle of a boy and his family filmed in real time across twelve years, looked to be unbeatable.  It collected Best Picture honors from the vast majority of critics groups, but then the Screen Actors, Producers, and Directors Guilds all honored Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s Birdman.  These guilds are an important bellwether as they are filled with people who will actually be voting for the Oscars.  The last film to win honors from these three guilds and not win Best Picture was Apollo 13 in 1996.  However, Birdman may still be a hard sell for the traditionalist Academy: it’s a comedy-drama with elements of fantasy, full of cynical musings on life, art, and Hollywood itself.  If it were to win, it would certainly be one of the most unconventional winners since the Oscars began.  In addition, it would be the first Best Picture winner without a nomination in the surprisingly important category of Best Film Editing since Ordinary People which was released all the way back in 1980.  For these reasons, I’m still predicting Boyhood to take the top honors, but don’t count Birdman out.

  • Will Win: Boyhood
  • Second Place: Birdman
  • My Pick: Boyhood
  • Should Have Been Nominated: Gone Girl

Best Director

The nominees:

  • Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
  • Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Birdman)
  • Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
  • Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)
  • Mortem Tyldum (The Imitation Game)

In terms of predictions and awards-race trajectory, this category is exactly the same as Best Picture.  Richard Linklater seemed to be a guaranteed winner for his twelve-year vision in Boyhood, but Alejandro G. Iñárritu has seemingly overtaken him recently for Birdman.  Still, predicting a split between Best Picture and Director is risky, as they almost always go to the same films.  For that reason, I feel compelled to predict Linklater.

  • Will Win: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
  • Second Place: Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Birdman)
  • My Pick: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
  • Should Have Been Nominated: David Fincher (Gone Girl)

Best Actress

The nominees:

-Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)

-Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)

-Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

-Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)

-Reese Witherspoon (Wild)

 

The acting categories, on the other hand, have been absurdly predictable for the entire awards season.  Three out of four of the categories have been dominated by the same winner across all of the precursor awards, and Best Actress is one of those categories.  Julianne Moore will no doubt hear her named called on the big night for playing a brilliant professor suddenly struck with early-onset Alzheimer’s in Still Alice.  Her work in the film is inarguably wonderful, but this award will also serve as a consolation prize for her previous four nominations, none of which yielded a win.

 

Will Win: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

Second Place: Reese Witherspoon (Wild)

My Pick: Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)

Should Have Been Nominated: Emily Blunt (Into the Woods)

 

 Best Actor

The nominees:

Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)

Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)

Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)

Michael Keaton (Birdman)

Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)

This is the only acting category that is not a definite call.  Eddie Redmayne and Michael Keaton have both been winning their fair share of accolades all season long, with Redmayne winning slightly more important awards, especially recently.  Redmayne’s portrayal of Stephen Hawking is also the typical kind that wins the Oscar; playing a real-life figure with a disability is the kind of double-whammy performance that Oscar voters can hardly resist.  On the other hand, Keaton is a Hollywood veteran pulling a come-back, which is also very appealing to the Academy.  This category is a practically a toss-up between the two, but I’m giving the slight edge to Redmayne.

  • Will Win: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
  • Second Place: Michael Keaton (Birdman)
  • My Pick: Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
  • Should Have Been Nominated: Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

Best Supporting Actress

The nominees:

  • Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
  • Laura Dern (Wild)
  • Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
  • Emma Stone (Birdman)
  • Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)

This is the second easy-to-call acting category.  Patricia Arquette has been the predicted winner ever since Boyhood premiered, and she’s shown no signs of slowing down all season long.  Her portrayal of the main character’s hard-working mother gives Boyhood its heart and transforms the film from a simple character study to a moving monument to the adults who shape all of our childhoods.  The other nominees don’t even need to attend.

  • Will Win: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
  • Second Place: Emma Stone (Birdman)
  • My Pick: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
  • Should Have Been Nominated: Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees:

  • Robert Duvall (The Judge)
  • Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
  • Edward Norton (Birdman)
  • Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
  • J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

Much like Best Supporting Actress, this category has been dominated by one contender for the past few months.  J.K. Simmons is perfection as the indomitable music teacher in Whiplash, giving one of the absolute best performances of the year.  This will be a well-deserved win for the veteran actor. 

  • Will Win: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
  • Second Place: Edward Norton (Birdman)
  • My Pick: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
  • Should Have Been Nominated: Chris Pine (Into the Woods)

And giving a quick glance to a few of the other categories…

Best Original Screenplay

  • Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Second Place: Birdman

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Will Win: The Imitation Game
  • Second Place: Whiplash

Best Animated Feature

  • Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
  • Second Place: Big Hero 6

Best Cinematography

  • Will Win: Birdman
  • Second Place: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Editing

  • Will Win: Boyhood
  • Second Place: Whiplash

Make sure to tune in to the Oscars on Sunday, February 22.  It’s sure to be one of the most unpredictable and exciting ceremonies in years!

Cody Dericks is a longtime resident of Sparta, having graduated from Sparta High School in 2009.  He then went on to graduate with honors from Hofstra University, where he earned a Bachelor of Fine Arts in Theater with a minor in English.  He most recently starred as George Bailey in Drama Geek Studio’s production of “It’s a Wonderful Life”, which played at the Sparta Avenue Stage.

From the Editor: Reviews reflect the opinion of the author.

The opinions expressed herein are the writer's alone, and do not reflect the opinions of TAPinto.net or anyone who works for TAPinto.net. TAPinto.net is not responsible for the accuracy of any of the information supplied by the writer.

 

The opinions expressed herein are the writer's alone, and do not reflect the opinions of TAPinto.net or anyone who works for TAPinto.net. TAPinto.net is not responsible for the accuracy of any of the information supplied by the writer.

TAP Into Another Town's News:

You May Also Be Interested In

Sign Up for E-News

Morristown

AtlantiCast

AtlantiCast Medical Minute: Atlantic Orthopedic Institute’s Scoliosis and Spinal Deformity Center

On this episode of the AtlantiCast Medical Minute, we’ll take you inside the Atlantic Orthopedic Institute’s Scoliosis and Spinal Deformity Center, with the center’s director, Jason Lowenstein, MD.

Video Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1M7euCp86-c

Guest Column: Help! My Boss is A Bully and Harasses Me

Women in all fields have experienced sexual harassment as well as sexual assault by the famous and the merely inconspicuous. Too often the powers that be in the workplace turn a blind eye or protect the harasser.  Worse yet, the harassment is often accompanied by bullying and intimidation.

What should you do if you find yourself in a situation where your boss or supervisor is sexually ...

Morris Animal Inn: February is National Pet Dental Health Month

MORRISTOWN, NJ - Throughout the month of February, when you schedule your dog's teeth brushing at Morris Animal Inn's Salon, your dog will receive a FREE Dental treat.

Schedule now at 973-532-5030 or visit www.morrisanimalinn.com

Bullet Found at Brooklawn School Causes Lockdown - Updated

February 17, 2018

PARSIPPANY, NJ - A stray bullet that was found in the hallway of Brooklawn Middle School was the cause of a lockdown yesterday afternoon.  

At approximately 2:25 PM Brooklawn Middle School was placed in lockdown after a student found a bullet in a hallway.

School Resource Officer P. McCarthy is assigned to and stationed inside the school and he quickly responded to ...

Elizabeth Schools Report One Student Has Died from Flu Virus

February 19, 2018

ELIZABETH, NJ - The Elizabeth School District has reported that one student has died from Influenza (Flu).

“It is with great sadness that I must report to you that the Elizabeth School District has lost one of its own,”  Elizabeth Superintendent of Schools Olga Hugelmeyer wrote in a letter to parents over the weekend. The Superintendents letter is ...

Grand Reopening Activities for Morristown National Historical Park this Weekend

February 16, 2018

MORRISTOWN, NJ - The schedule of events for the Grand Opening of the Morristown National Historical Park's Discover History Center has been announced. From February 17 through February 20, visitors can attend a variety of talks, walks, interactive exhibits, and performances.  

All events will begin or occur at the Washington’s Headquarters Museum, 30 Washington ...

Morristown High School Presents 'Anything Goes'

MORRISTOWN, NJ - Rehearsals are underway for the 2018 Morristown High School production of Anything Goes. There will be four performances; Thursday March 8, Friday March 9, Saturday March 10 and Sunday March 11

Tickets are on sale and available at www.mhstix.com

Sign up to get all the news as it happens at www.TAPinto.net/enews and follow us on Facebook ...

Free Event

Happening today at 10am

Registration is Open for Morris Elite's Spring and Summer Camps

February 19, 2018

Morris Elite Soccer Camp will be offering four weeks of camp this summer. Don't miss out! Register now at https://www.morriselitesoccer.com/page/show/3890035-camps

Celebrate Presidents Day with Photography Exhibition on George Washington’s Headquarters

MORRISTOWN, NJ - The museum at New Jersey’s Morristown National Historical Park kicks off Presidents Day with the debut solo exhibition George Washington’s Headquarters:  Photographs by Xiomáro, curated by Jude M. Pfister, D.Litt, the park’s Chief of Cultural Resources.  Admission is free and the 24 large images of the Ford Mansion, which served as ...

Macculloch Hall Historical Museum Remembers Abraham Lincoln; Feb. 19

MORRISTOWN, NJ - Macculloch Hall Historical Museum is hosting a program for children on Monday February 19 titled, "Abraham Lincoln Remembered".

Kids can learn about Lincoln’s whistle-stop train trip that began on February 11, 1861 when he traveled from his home in Springfield, Illinois to Washington, DC, where he took the presidential oath of office and began his first term as ...

The HOPE ONE Van Comes to Morristown Library Feb. 8th

February 8, 2018

MORRISTOWN, NJ -  The HOPE ONE van will be at the Morristown & Morris Township Library on today, February 8 from 9am - 2pm. 

The  HOPE One vehicle, which previously was used in police tactical operations is now a mobile recovery access vehicle. The vehicle, which  has trained staff on site, provides individuals with information about rehab, detox services, ...

iCan Bike, a Bike Riding Camp For People With Disabilities, Comes To CCM in Randolph

RANDOLPH, NJ- iCan Bike, a camp to teach individuals with disabilities to ride a conventional two-wheel bicycle, is coming to County College of Morris in the summer of 2018.  CCM is generously providing the use of their gymnasium for the iCan Bike organizers to run their program in.

The camp, which will be held August 6-10, is one of several programs run under the auspices of iCan Shine, ...

Morrisown Students Invited to the Morris County Public Safety Youth Academy

February 19, 2018

MORRISTOWN, NJ - The sixth-annual Morris County Public Safety Youth Academy program will be held this July for students entering grades 9-12 in the fall. Enrollment will begin March 1 and close April 8. The program is designed for students entering Grades 9 – 12 in the fall of this year.  

The 2018 program will be held the week of July 23 – July 27 (Mon – ...

Brendan Fletcher of "The Voice" Named as a Judge for Morristown ONSTAGE

MORRISTOWN, NJ – The Morris Educational Foundation (MEF) has announced this year’s panel of professional judges which includes 2016 semi-finalist on The Voice and New Jersey native, Brendan Fletcher.  Brendan was introduced to Morristown ONSTAGE last year when his friend and fellow musician, Jay Phatak, competed for the top prize and won last year’s 19 and over ...

Morris Township Firemen Host Valentine's Day Flower and Gift Sale

MORRIS TOWNSHIP, NJ - Planning on getting roses for someone special this Valentine's Day? Why not get them from the HIllside Fire House and help support the Morris Township Emergency Management Association and the Morris Township Firefighter's Mutual Benevolent Association Local 70 .

The roses will be on sale at the Hillside Fire House, 132 Western Avenue on February 12 ...

Very Hot Tea Increases Cancer Risk

Researchers in China studying the consumption of “burning” hot tea, alcohol, and smoking habits of greater than 450,000 people ages 30 –79 for more than nine years found a five time greater risk of esophageal cancer in those who engaged in all three of the behaviors and a two time greater risk in those who either smoked or drank alcohol and consumed burning hot tea as compared ...

The 33% Approval Rating of this Administration Illustrates One Thing: The Electoral College Failed

The 33% Approval Rating of this Administration Illustrates One Thing: The Electoral College Failed

Jeff Sessions-  “Why would be bring somebody into the country who is illiterate in their own language?”  -To Tucker Carlson on FOX.

The most frustrating thing about the television is the one sided conversations that take place.  When the Attorney General, Jeffrey B.

Does Marriage or Mortgage Come First?

According to the National Association of REALTORS most recent Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers, married couples once again dominated the first-time homebuyer statistics in 2017 at 57% of all buyers. Team Nest Builder knows it's no surprise that having two incomes to save for down payments and contribute to monthly housing costs makes buying a home more ...

NYJ Class for Young Mindless Players

If only this was true.....

Good morning. My name is Todd Bowles, head coach for the New York Jets, as you are all aware. Today we will be going over some of the stupidest things you should not do while playing for the NFL. Your agent should have gone over the NFL conduct rules and the New York Jets rules (although sometimes ours are a little less harsher, hush, hush) while you were signing ...

Super Carb Diet by Bob Harper

Super Carb Diet by Bob Harper with Danny Pellegrino (St. Martin's Press, 2017)

It's hard to go on a serious diet, one on which you expect to be successful and maintain a loss. Fortunately, in his new book Super Carb Diet, Bob Harper has given the weight watching world a sensible new diet plan to help achieve a healthy weight.

Harper, host of NBC's popular show The Biggest Loser, ...

Game of Thrones: A Definitive Ranking of Seasons 1-7

Groundhog Day. The day a tiny mammal’s shadow tells us when winter will come to an end. Me? I prefer my weather forecast in the form of a white raven (the telltale changing of seasons in Westeros).

For a few days, rumors spread that Game of Thrones will not return for its final season until April 2019, and while it was clarified that the April return date was likely a false rumor, HBO ...

'What Stays' exposes family secrets and lies

‘What Stays’ exposes family secrets, resentment and lies

By Liz Keill

SUMMIT, NJ – In an original play by Laura Ekstrand and Jason Szamreta, the Dreamcatcher Repertory Theatre has provided an enlightening, funny and heart-felt view of family foibles.

Ekstrand has said that the germ of the play came from conversations with the ensemble members of the troupe, based on ...

Guest Column: How to Talk with Kids About the Florida Shooting

February 15, 2018

Guest Column

The tragedy of the Florida school shooting is devastating leaving 17 killed and 15 injured. Our children can easily identify with what occurred yesterday. It will be the topic of conversation today in schools everywhere. School administrators are doing all they can to provide support and guidance. The shootings affect children, teachers, and school personnel. The ...

Guest Column: The Great "Wait" of the College Process

"The Great Wait" of the College Application Process

For all the high school seniors and their parents, we are in the stressful "waiting period".  We've just finished or are finishing applications to all the schools we might possibly want to attend next year and now sit and wait our fate after the $60-$80 non-refundable application fees to at least 8-13 schools and ...

Upcoming Events

Mon, February 19

Scherman Hoffman Wildlife Sanctuary, Bernardsville

NJ Audubon: Volunteer Art Show!

Arts & Entertainment Green

Mon, February 19, 9:00 AM

The Center for Contemporary Art, Bedminster

Andrea Gianchiglia: Tools of the Trade

Arts & Entertainment

Mon, February 19, 9:00 AM

The Center for Contemporary Art, Bedminster

Keepers of the Chroma: An Exhibition Regarding ...

Arts & Entertainment

CCM Library to Offer Free Workshops in Grant Writing and Fundraising Workshops Provided by Foundation Center’s Funding Information Network

February 19, 2018

RANDOLPH, NJ – The County College of Morris (CCM) Library’s Foundation Center Funding Information Network is offering three free workshops on the Foundation Center products during the college’s Spring Break, March 12-15.   The CCM Library is a participant in the Foundation Center’s Funding Information Network. Network partners provide a suite of ...