PATERSON, NJ- The third in a series of nor’easters impacting the Mid-Atlantic and New England will affect the New York City area Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. The track of the storm has been particularly troublesome to forecast, but the midday model runs today, March 11, have begun to converge on a solution that curves the center of the nor’easter far offshore of New Jersey before accelerating north towards the Gulf of Maine. However, points west of NYC may not be fully immune from impacts, with the storm wrapping in lake effect snow on its backside.

All forecast models today suggest light snowfall across North Jersey, possibly beginning as rain or sleet during the afternoon Monday before transitioning to snow around 6:00 p.m. or slightly later. Precipitation is expected to continue sporadically throughout the night into Tuesday morning. Snow totals from the European model are near 1 inch for Eastern Passaic County, while American models predict up to 4 inches—higher totals are possible just north and west, especially into the higher elevations of Western Passaic, Sussex, and Orange counties.        

The storm may also bring high winds to the area during the afternoon Tuesday, with gusts comparable to the most recent nor’easter. However, as of 3:00 p.m. Sunday, the National Weather Service has yet to issue any advisories.   

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Daniel J. Ciarletta is a PhD candidate in Environmental Management at Montclair State University, with a research focus on sedimentology and coastal geomorphology.  He has more than a passing interest in the geology, geography, and history of New Jersey, and is also an avid hiker.

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