HAWTHORNE, NJ - Long range forecasts for a winter storm this weekend have failed to materialize, and it now appears North Jersey could be mostly flake-free. Previously, models indicated a storm moving eastward over St. Louis would begin interacting with a coastal low near the Carolinas on Friday and Saturday, developing into a powerful nor’easter off the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.  Observations and the latest model guidance now indicate a nor’easter will be slow to develop, and the system should be ejected off the coast of North Carolina before it poses a threat to the New York metro area. 

For Saturday night into Sunday morning, a few flurries are possible, and a coating to an inch could accumulate in spots. Temperatures will remain at or below freezing through the weekend and are not expected to significantly rebound until Tuesday. Long range forecasts suggest another nor’easter could develop next weekend (Jan. 20), although it is unclear if temperatures will be cold enough to sustain snow.

Readers are advised to use caution if traveling south this weekend, as snowfall up to 6 inches is possible in the Delmarva and Northern Virginia regions.  Snowfall up to 3 or 4 inches may also occur in South Jersey, especially closer to Cape May County.

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Daniel J. Ciarletta is a PhD candidate in Environmental Management at Montclair State University, with a research focus on sedimentology and coastal geomorphology.  He has more than a passing interest in the geology, geography, and history of New Jersey, and is also an avid hiker.

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