SOUTH PLAINFIELD, NJ - The third in a series of nor’easters impacting the Mid-Atlantic and New England will affect the New York City area Monday evening through Tuesday. The track of the storm has been particularly troublesome to forecast, but the midday model runs today, March 11, have begun to converge on a solution that curves the center of the nor’easter far offshore of New Jersey before accelerating north towards the Gulf of Maine. However, points west of NYC may not be fully immune from impacts, with the storm wrapping in lake effect snow on its backside.

All forecast models today suggest light snowfall across Central and Northern Jersey, possibly beginning as rain or sleet during the late afternoon Monday before transitioning to snow around 6:00 p.m. or slightly later. Precipitation is expected to continue sporadically throughout the night into Tuesday morning. Snow totals are predicting 2-4 inches with accumulation most likely on colder surfaces.        

The storm may also bring high winds to the area during the afternoon Tuesday, with gusts comparable to the most recent nor’easter. However, as of 8:00 p.m. Sunday, the National Weather Service has yet to issue any advisories.   

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"We are very concerned about the winds with this storm," said South Plainfield Council President Robert Bengivenga. "There are still a lot of dangling branches around town, residents are going to have to be very cautious venturing outside tuesday."

As always, please refer to National Weather Service products for the latest updates.

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Daniel J. Ciarletta is a PhD candidate in Environmental Management at Montclair State University, with a research focus on sedimentology and coastal geomorphology.  He has more than a passing interest in the geology, geography, and history of New Jersey, and is also an avid hiker.